Shane Bieber is pitching his way into a real contract extension conversation with the Blue Jays.
He was one of the most talked-about trade candidates leading up to this year's deadline. Toronto held on to him anyway.
That decision is looking better by the week. The Blue Jays are back in the playoff race, sitting 1.5 games behind the Guardians for the final AL wild card spot as of Aug. 24.
Bieber's timing has been close to perfect. Against the Rays on Aug. 20, he allowed one earned run on four hits with seven strikeouts over seven innings.
That followed a similar line against the Yankees on Aug. 14, one earned run on four hits with five strikeouts.
"It's showing up more as of late, the fight that this team has. That's why I love to be a Blue Jay," Bieber said on the Blue Jays' turnaround.
The former AL Cy Young winner is flashing signs of his old All-Star form at exactly the moment Toronto needs it most.
Why a short-term deal makes the most sense here
He didn't make his season debut until late June because of injury, which explains some early rust.
Over 11 starts this year, Bieber has thrown 55.2 innings with a 4.53 ERA and a 5.13 FIP.
Some of that gets skewed by disaster outings, like 0.2 innings against Washington on July 28, allowing four earned runs and six walks.
He also gave up five earned runs in 5.2 innings against the Phillies on Aug. 9, largely due to a couple of big home runs off Kyle Schwarber.
Strip those two starts out, and the picture changes completely. Going back to July 10, Bieber has allowed two runs or fewer in all six starts, with 31 strikeouts over 36.1 innings and a 1.49 ERA.
That's a completely different pitcher than the season-long numbers suggest.
Given his injury history, a short-term extension makes more sense than a long-term commitment carrying real risk for Toronto.
If he stays healthy and keeps pitching like this, a longer deal could become the obvious next step.
Whether the Blue Jays lock him up now or let this play out into the offseason, letting him walk for nothing after a stretch like this would be the real mistake.
Should the Blue Jays sign Shane Bieber to a contract extension this offseason?
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