What a bizarre season 2026 is turning out to be. There are still 12 American League teams within 3.5 games of the third wild card spot, more than three-quarters of the way through the year.
The Boston Red Sox are the only team to actually separate from the pack, winning 32 of 37 games at one stretch. Every other contender keeps jockeying back and forth without gaining real separation.
Toronto sits two games shy of the third wild card spot, currently held by Detroit. The Blue Jays hold the 10th best record in the American League, with the Rangers, Twins, Guardians and Orioles also ahead of or tied with them.
Toronto does have the eighth easiest remaining schedule, and the next nine games loom large, three against the Rays and six against the Yankees. After that stretch, Toronto doesn't face a single team over .500 the rest of the way.
That's real, since Toronto sits just 31-41 against teams .500 or better this season.
Why the bullpen workload complicates everything further
Toronto has won six of its last 10 and three of its last four, real momentum, but the same problems that have defined this season, a lack of offense and constant pitching injuries, haven't gone anywhere.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s seven home runs reflect his own struggles, but Toronto ranks 29th in runs scored overall, meaning this isn't just about one player.
Recent injuries to Jameson Taillon and Trey Yesavage have left Toronto with only four healthy starters, meaning a bullpen day may become necessary, a real problem given how taxed that bullpen already is.
John Schneider has made 449 pitching changes through Thursday, 31 more than the next closest team. Four Blue Jays relievers, Fluharty, Fisher, Rogers and Varland, have each appeared in 56 or more games, more than any other team besides the Yankees, who have just two.
Making the third wild card likely requires at least 82 wins, meaning Toronto needs to go 23-16 over its final 39 games. Their best 39-game stretch all season was 22-17.
Cease sits at 2.41 ERA and Soriano at 3.37, while Scherzer carries a 7.92 ERA and Bieber sits at 5.11, leaving real questions about who fills a fifth starter role most nights.
It's a bit like trying to sprint the final mile of a marathon on legs that have already been running on fumes for hours.
Does Soriano's fit within Toronto's analytically driven pitching program actually unlock another level from him down the stretch, or is real improvement more likely a 2027 story than something that saves this season?
Do you believe the Blue Jays can go 23-16 over their final 39 games to make the playoffs?
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